How Treasury sells new securities: it announces the size, investors bid, and the yield is set by the bids (single-price auction). See chapter 5.
Basis point (bp)
One hundredth of a percentage point: 0.01%. 25 bp = 0.25%.
Bid-to-cover ratio
Total bids divided by the amount sold at an auction. Higher means stronger demand; compare with recent auctions of the same maturity (the 12 Aug 2026 10-year was 2.53).
Breakeven inflation
Nominal Treasury yield minus the TIPS real yield for the same maturity: the inflation rate the market is pricing, plus a risk premium.
Buyback
Treasury buying back its own older securities before maturity, to improve liquidity or manage cash. Regular since 2024.
The fixed interest a note or bond pays, every six months, as a % of face value.
CPI
Consumer Price Index, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Used to index TIPS and Social Security.
Debt ceiling (debt limit)
The legal cap on how much Treasury may borrow. It doesn't authorise spending. $41.104 tn since July 2025; debt subject to it was $40.13 tn on 14 Oct 2026 (DTS table III-C). The X-date is when Treasury can no longer pay all its bills without a higher limit.
Debt held by the public
Marketable and non-marketable Treasury debt held outside federal government accounts (investors, the Fed, foreign holders). $32.48 tn on 14 Oct 2026.
Deferred asset (Fed)
The accounting entry the Fed uses for its losses since 2022: future profits must pay it off before remittances to Treasury restart. $233 bn on 14 Oct 2026.
Direct / indirect bidders
Direct bidders bid at an auction for their own account; indirect bidders bid through a dealer and are mainly foreign central banks and funds.
Duration
How sensitive a bond's price is to yields, in years: price change ≈ −duration × yield change. A 10-year note has a duration of about 8.
Fed funds rate
The overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to each other. The FOMC sets a target range (3.75–4.00% since 16 Sep 2026). EFFR is the effective, actual average.
Federal Reserve (Fed)
The independent US central bank: sets interest rates, supervises banks, and runs the payment system.
Fiscal Data
fiscaldata.treasury.gov, Treasury's open-data site (debt, interest, auctions, daily and monthly statements).
Fiscal year (FY)
The US government's year runs 1 Oct–30 Sep. FY2026 = Oct 2025–Sep 2026.
FOMC
Federal Open Market Committee: the 12 Fed policymakers (7 governors and 5 regional bank presidents voting) who set the fed funds rate. It meets 8 times a year.
FRN
Floating Rate Note: a 2-year Treasury whose interest resets weekly with the 13-week bill rate.
GDP
Gross Domestic Product: the value of everything an economy produces in a year. "Nominal" GDP is at current prices; "real" GDP removes inflation.
Treasury debt held by federal trust funds such as Social Security. Non-marketable. $7.85 tn on 14 Oct 2026.
Marketable debt
Bills, notes, bonds, TIPS and FRNs that can be traded. $31.8 tn on 30 Sep 2026.
Maturity
The date the principal is repaid.
Money market fund (MMF)
A fund investing in very short-term, safe assets (bills, repo). Held $3.28 tn of Treasuries in Q2 2026.
PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (from the BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis): the Fed's preferred inflation measure, with a 2% target. "Core" excludes food and energy.
Primary dealer
One of about two dozen banks and brokers that trade directly with the New York Fed and must bid at every Treasury auction.
QE / QT
Quantitative Easing: the Fed buys Treasuries (and mortgage bonds) in the secondary market to lower long rates. Quantitative Tightening: it lets them mature without replacement.
Real yield
The yield after inflation, observed on TIPS (series DFII10 for 10 years).
Refunding (quarterly)
Treasury's quarterly announcement (Feb, May, Aug, Nov) of borrowing needs, auction sizes and policy. Next: 2 and 4 Nov 2026.
Repo
Repurchase agreement: a short-term loan secured by collateral, usually Treasuries. The core of daily funding markets.
RRP
The Fed's overnight Reverse Repurchase facility, where money funds can park cash at the Fed against Treasury collateral. It acts as a floor under short rates.
Secondary market
Trading of existing securities between investors, after the auction. It's the only place the Fed may buy Treasuries.
SEP
Summary of Economic Projections: FOMC members' forecasts of growth, unemployment, inflation and the fed funds rate (the "dot plot"), published in March, June, September and December.
SOFR
Secured Overnight Financing Rate: the benchmark overnight repo rate, computed by the NY Fed from trillions of dollars of daily trades. It replaced LIBOR.
Spread (10y−2y, 10y−3m)
The difference between two yields. Negative = inverted curve.
T-bill / T-note / T-bond
Treasury bill (≤1 year, no coupon, sold at a discount); note (2–10 years, six-monthly coupon); bond (20–30 years, six-monthly coupon).
Tail
When an auction's high yield comes in above the market yield just before the deadline: a sign of weak demand.
Term premium
Extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short bills. Not directly observable; estimated by models (e.g. NY Fed ACM).
TGA
Treasury General Account: Treasury's cash account at the Fed. $886 bn on 14 Oct 2026.
TIC
Treasury International Capital system: monthly data on foreign holdings and flows of US securities.
TIPS
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: their principal rises with CPI, so the yield is a real yield.
Treasury (Department of the)
The executive-branch ministry that collects taxes, pays bills and issues debt.
TreasuryDirect
treasurydirect.gov: Treasury's site where individuals can buy bills, notes, bonds and savings bonds directly (US persons only).
X-date
The estimated day Treasury runs out of cash and extraordinary measures under the debt limit.
Yield
The annual return from buying a bond at today's price and holding it to maturity.
Yield curve
Yields plotted by maturity. Steepening/flattening = long minus short widening/narrowing; bull = yields falling, bear = yields rising; inversion = short above long.