Today's readings
Auto insights
Computed from the data on every load. Plain-language reads, not forecasts.
Yields over time
3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year constant-maturity yields and the effective fed funds rate. Grey bands = NBER US recessions.
The yield curve: now vs 1 month vs 1 year ago
Curve spreads & real yields
10y − 2y and 10y − 3m
Below zero = inverted. Inversions preceded each US recession since the 1970s, with long and variable lags (and the 2022–24 inversion was followed by no recession). Grey = recessions.
10y real yield (TIPS), breakeven inflation, 30y mortgage
Nominal 10y ≈ real yield + breakeven inflation. Mortgage rate is Freddie Mac weekly survey.
What the Fed and Treasury are saying
Fed monetary-policy releases live RSS
Fed speeches live RSS
Treasury press releases live
Primer
1. What Treasuries are
Loans to the US government. Bills (≤1 year, sold at a discount), notes (2–10 years) and bonds (20–30 years) pay a fixed coupon every six months; TIPS adjust their principal for CPI inflation. About $30 trillion are held by the public. Because the US prints the currency it borrows in, Treasuries are treated as the world's "risk-free" asset: the 10-year yield is the base rate from which mortgages, corporate loans, stock valuations and emerging-market borrowing costs are priced.
2. Price vs yield — a seesaw
A bond's coupon is fixed. If new bonds pay more, old ones must get cheaper so that their yield matches. Example: a 10-year bond with a 4% coupon bought at 100. If market yields jump to 5%, its price falls to about 92.2 (−7.8%). The sensitivity is the duration: a 10-year note has duration ≈ 8, so each +1 pp of yield ≈ −8% price; a 30-year bond (duration ≈ 17) loses ≈ 17%. Short bills barely move.
3. The curve: shape tells the story
The curve plots yields by maturity. Normally longer loans pay more (you lock money up longer and bear more inflation risk). 2-year yields track where markets expect the Fed's rate over the next two years; 10-year mixes growth, inflation and a risk premium; 30-year is most exposed to long-run inflation, deficits and supply.
- Steepening: long minus short widens. Flattening: it narrows.
- Bull move = yields falling (prices rising). Bear move = yields rising.
- Inversion: short yields above long ones — the market expects the Fed to cut, usually because it expects a slowdown. 10y−3m is the New York Fed's favourite recession signal; 10y−2y is the most quoted.
4. Real yields, breakevens and the term premium
Real yield (DFII10) is what you earn after inflation — the true cost of money and the main gravity for gold, growth stocks and Bitcoin. Breakeven (T10YIE) = nominal − real, the inflation rate the market prices. Term premium is the extra yield investors demand for holding long bonds instead of rolling bills; it rises with deficit worries, heavy issuance, inflation uncertainty and weaker foreign demand. It is not observed directly — estimates such as the NY Fed ACM model or Kim–Wright differ, so treat any number as approximate.
5. Why yields rise or fall — and what it moves
| Driver | Yields | Typical read |
|---|---|---|
| Stronger growth | ↑ (long end) | Healthy if real yields rise with earnings. |
| Higher inflation / expectations | ↑ breakevens | Bad for long bonds; Fed may stay tight. |
| Fed expected to hike | ↑ (front end most) | Bear flattening. |
| More supply, bigger deficits | ↑ (long end, term premium) | Bear steepening without better growth — "bond vigilantes". |
| Recession fears, Fed cuts | ↓ | Bull steepening (front falls fastest). |
| Flight to safety (crisis, war) | ↓ | Dollar and gold up, stocks down. |
Impact by asset (rising yields; reverse for falling)
| Asset | Usual reaction when yields rise | Why / caveat |
|---|---|---|
| Equities — growth/tech | Hurt most | Profits are far in the future; higher discount rate shrinks their value today. |
| Equities — value, banks, energy | Hold up better | Banks earn more on a steeper curve; value earns cash now. Real yields matter more than nominal. |
| US dollar | Usually stronger | Higher US returns attract money — unless yields rise from fiscal fear, when the dollar can fall with bonds (2025 episodes). |
| Gold | Usually weaker | Pays no yield; inverse to real yields. Central-bank buying has weakened that link since 2022. |
| Bitcoin | Usually weaker | Trades like a long-duration liquidity asset: tighter real rates and a strong dollar drain liquidity. Correlation is unstable and BTC-specific news (ETF flows, halving) can dominate. |
| Emerging markets incl. Vietnam | Pressure | A stronger dollar pushes the VND weaker, the SBV has less room to cut, and foreign investors pull money from VN stocks. Vietnam's managed currency band softens the shock. |
| Mortgages | Rates up | The US 30y mortgage tracks the 10y plus a spread (~1.7–3 pp). Vietnamese and French mortgage rates follow their own central banks, but feel it indirectly. |
Macro investor's playbook
| Regime | What happens | Usual cause | Typical reactions | Caveats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull steepening | All yields fall, short ones most | Fed cutting into a slowdown | Long bonds ↑, gold ↑, dollar ↓, defensives ↑; stocks mixed until the cuts work | Often happens just before or during recessions — not always bullish for stocks. |
| Bear steepening | Long yields rise faster | Inflation fear, deficits, supply, term premium | Long bonds ↓, growth stocks ↓, banks/value relatively ↑, gold/BTC mixed, EM ↓ | "Good" if driven by growth, "bad" if by fiscal worries — check real yields vs breakevens. |
| Bear flattening | Short yields rise faster | Fed hiking / hawkish | Dollar ↑, gold ↓, BTC ↓, EM ↓, short bonds ↓ | Often late-cycle; heads toward inversion. |
| Bull flattening | Long yields fall faster | Growth worries, flight to safety, lower inflation expectations | Long bonds ↑, quality/defensive stocks ↑, dollar ↑ (safety) | Can also reflect foreign or pension demand, not just pessimism. |
| Inverted & re-steepening | Curve un-inverts | Cuts begin | Historically the danger window for stocks | Small sample (~8 cycles); 2022–24 broke the pattern. |
How to read the dashboard in 60 seconds
- Which way did the 2y and 10y move this month, and which moved more? → name the regime above.
- Is the move in the real yield or the breakeven? Real = tighter money (bad for gold/BTC/growth). Breakeven = inflation scare.
- Is the Fed priced to cut or hike? Compare the 2y with the fed funds rate: 2y well below = cuts expected.
- Check the calendar: FOMC dates and Treasury refunding (supply) often move the long end.
- Then size, don't bet: use this as context for allocation, not timing.
Sources & limits
- Latest yields (nominal and TIPS real curve): US Treasury daily par yield curve, fetched live, cached 3 h. Spreads and breakeven for the newest days are computed from it (10y − 2y, 10y − 3m, 10y nominal − 10y real).
- Fed funds: NY Fed effective fed funds rate, live.
- History since 2000 (recessions since 1976), 30-year mortgage (weekly, Freddie Mac PMMS): FRED, St. Louis Fed series DGS1MO…DGS30, T10Y2Y, T10Y3M, DFII10, T10YIE, DFF, MORTGAGE30US, USREC. FRED blocks cloud servers, so this part is a snapshot rebuilt by the monthly refresh; the mortgage rate can be up to a month old.
- Fed releases and speeches: federalreserve.gov RSS, cached 2 h. Treasury: home.treasury.gov press releases.
- FOMC decision, calendar, SEP medians and quarterly refunding summary are a dated snapshot () and are re-checked monthly.
- Limits: end-of-day data only, no intraday. Typical asset reactions are historical tendencies, not rules. Term premium is not shown because the estimates are model-based. Market-implied Fed pricing (futures) is not available free and is approximated with the 2y vs fed funds gap.